20.02.2015 - The Greek crisis continues to put pressure on the price of the euro
The price of euro fell against the background of release of a strong statistics on the labor market in the US, where the number of initial unemployment claims fell to 283 thousand against the forecast of 290 thousand. At the same time a negative for the euro was the refusal of Germany from the proposal of Greece to continue the loan program of the country for 6 months. Today, the course of trading will be affected by data on manufacturing and service PMI in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT), as well as the manufacturing PMI in the US (14:45 GMT). We are not waiting for the strong growth volatility today, and quotes probably will finish the trading session around current levels. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
The price of the British pound fell slightly against the strengthening of the US dollar after data on the labor market. It is worth noting that investors expect raising interest rates by the Fed in June, but the Bank of England is also planning to raise rates this year, which will support the price of the British pound. The balance of production orders in the UK rose to 10, that is 6 better than the previous figure. Today the course of trading will depend on the statistics on retail sales in the country (09:30 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative view on the British pound, but expect a continuation of the current growth in the near future.
The price of the Japanese yen showed a decline against the strengthening of the US dollar, but the drop was limited to an increased demand for defensive assets after statements by the representatives of Germany, not Greece constructive proposals to extend the loan program for 6 months. Manufacturing PMI in Japan in February showed a decline to 51.5, which is 1.1 below the forecast of analysts. On Monday, the course of trading will be affected the minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of England. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese yen.
The price of the Australian dollar continues to consolidate near the level of 0.78. Investors did not rush to build up positions in connection with public holidays in China, where celebrate the New Year. It is worth noting that the main influence on the course of trading has the data are from the US, which yesterday led to the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as the dynamics of commodity prices. Given the deterioration in the labor market, low export prices and a reduction in investment in the mining sector, we see no reason to change the negative trend. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
New Zealand dollar price corrected downwards after the US dollar strengthening against the background of positive data on the labor market. New Zealand's currency is more strong than Australian one due to stronger macroeconomic performance and the recent rise in prices for milk powder, which is a key export commodity of the country. Our medium-term outlook for the New Zealand currency was revised upwards, but the growth potential remains limited due to the slowing growth in China, which is the main trading partner of the country.