20.02.2015 - US crude oil inventories rose again
The price of gold fell slightly after the publication of statistics on the US labor market, which has led to the strengthening of the US dollar. Thus, the number of initial unemployment claims in the US fell to 283 thousand, against forecasted 293 thousand. Analysts expect the Fed raising interest rates in June of this year, which will have a negative impact on the dynamics of the price of gold. On the other hand the demand for defensive assets supported by concerns about Greece's debt crisis after Germany rejected the proposal by Greece to extend credit program. We expect the resumption of purchases of gold about the levels of 1180-1200 dollars per troy ounce. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for gold, but expect a further fall in prices in the near future.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil continues to show strong volatility amid speculation in US oil inventories, reduction of oil rigs in the country and the oversupply of oil on the market. Positive for the market yesterday was the data on improved situation on the labor market in the US, but oil inventories, which rose by 7.7 million barrels for the weekhas worsened the mood of bulls. At the same time, supply disruptions from Iraq and Libya support oil prices. At the moment, we see no reason for the rise in prices in the near future and maintain a negative outlook and recommendation to hold short positions, but in the second half of this year excess of oil will be reduced and prices may go up.