20.04.2015 - IMF refused Greece in deferred payment
The price of euro stabilized after reaching the mark of 1.0800 after in the US was published the data on the consumer price index, which has led to an increase in investor confidence on the Fed interest rates raising in June. Thus, the figure was 0.2% in March, which coincided with forecasts of analysts. Today is not expected the publication of important macroeconomic data, but the course of trading may be affected by the news regarding the negotiations with Greece's creditors. Earlier, the IMF refused Greece in the deferred payment on the credit. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative due to the quantitative easing program and the problems associated with the possible default of Greece.
The price of the British pound reached an important level of 1.50, but was unable to fix above it and continue to grow. The data on the labor market in the country have been mixed. On the one hand the unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 5.6%, in line with analysts' forecasts, but wage growth slowed to 1.7%, which is 0.1% worse than the forecast. Today the positive was statistics on the growth of the price index for housing in the country by 1.6% in April, compared to 1.0% in March. Negative for the British currency are falling euro and weakening economic growth. Our medium-term view on the British pound is negative and in the near future we may see a downward correction.
The price of the Japanese yen continues to strengthen against the US dollar, but the potential for a continuation of the current dynamics is reduced. It should be noted that the tertiary index of business activity in the services sector in Japan pleased investors and 0.3% in February, against an expected decline of 0.6%. Volatility in the near future will be reduced due to lack of drivers. In case of deterioration of expectations regarding the negotiations with the creditors of Greece, the demand for the yen as a defensive asset will rise. We look forward to the resumption of the downward movement of the yen and keep medium-term negative outlook.
The price of the Australian dollar slowed the growth after the data on the labor market that pleased investors. The potential for further increase is limited. It is worth noting that today will take place the speech of the Reserve Bank of Australia chairman Glenn Stevens (16:30 GMT), during which he may hint at timing of lowering interest rates to 2.0%. Tomorrow will be published the minutes of the previous meeting at which the RBA will decide to leave interest rates at current levels. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative and soon the fall may resume.
Price of the New Zealand dollar fell slightly after the publication of statistics on the consumer price index, which in the first quarter fell 0.3%, against an expected decline of 0.2%. In the near future the trading dynamics will be affected by the movement of the Australian dollar and the price of export products, the main of which are dairy products. Growth of price may continue in the near future, but its potential is limited.