20.10.2015 - Oil continues to fall

The price of gold continues to decline amid fixation of positions by investors in connection with the reaching of long positions in gold, the highest level since May this year. Pressure on price growth had the US dollar, as well as statistics from China according to which GDP growth slowed to 6.9% in the third quarter against the forecast of 6.8%. The demand for defensive assets gradually reduced. The main factor that affects the price of gold is still waiting for the Fed to tighten monetary policy. In case of growth of confidence in the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December, the price of gold will decline. We expect the resumption of growth in gold prices in the near future.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil fell yesterday after the release of weak statistics on industrial production in China, the growth of which in September fell to 5.7%, vs. expected 6.0% and 6.1% in August. It is worth noting that in Iran call to cut oil production to raise the price of 70-80 dollars per barrel, but at the same time point out that oil exports will increase by 500 thousand barrels per day on the day after the lifting of sanctions against the Islamic republic. The excess on the market remains at the level of 1.5-2.5 million barrels per day and is likely to continue next year. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on oil and expect the fall in the near future.

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