20.11.2015 - The US dollar weakened against major currencies
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to correct upwards amid the weakening of the US dollar, as well as due to the strong statistics on the euro area balance of payments surplus, which in September rose to 29.4 billion, compared with an expected 18.3 billion. Philadelphia's manufacturing PMI rose to 1.9, which is 1.8 better than expected. At the same time in the minutes of the previous meeting of the ECB has not been said that the new incentives will be definitely approved at the next ECB meeting on December 3rd. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the ECB President Mario Draghi (08:00 GMT) and the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley (16:15 GMT). Investor sentiment will also be influenced by the data on consumer confidence in the Eurozone (15:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for the resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound rose against the background of fixing positions on the US dollar after the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Federal Reserve. It is worth noting that the weak statistics from the UK could not change investor sentiment. Thus, retail sales in October fell by 0.6%, which was 0.2% below the forecast. In September, the figure rose by 1.7%. Today, the movement is British currency can be affected by the data on public sector net borrowing in the UK. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook for the pound and expect the resumption of the fall after the current upward impulse.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened against the backdrop of the US dollar weakening. Yesterday was published statistics to reduce the deficit of the trade balance of Japan and Bank of Japan said about the country's economic recovery and achievement of the expected inflation rate of 2.0% in the second half of 2016. Today will be published monthly economic report of the Bank of Japan (05:00 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese yen in relation to the expected strengthening of the dollar and the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued to rise and at the moment has reached an important level of 0.72. Despite the recent increase, the quotes are still under the influence of low prices for commodities such as iron ore, coal, copper and gold. The weakening of the US dollar according to our forecasts will soon be replaced by the growth. Today, negative for the Australian dollar was the news on the growth of the index of leading economic indicators in China by only 0.6% in October, down from 1.6% in September. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for the resumption of the negative dynamics of prices in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued its corrective upward movement to an important level of 0.66. Rising prices was due to higher Australian dollar and the weakening US dollar. Next week will be published data on the trade balance in New Zealand, which have a strong influence on the course of trading. We expect a continuation of the negative dynamics of prices after the current correction.