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- 20.12.2013- The stock market is trying to determine the direction. Dollar is strengthening.
20.12.2013- The stock market is trying to determine the direction. Dollar is strengthening.
After a strong growth the day before, the U.S. markets showed multidirectional dynamics. Investors decided to fix part of positions after a strong growth on the previous day. The main news in the Eurozone yesterday was the fact that after 18 months of negotiations EU finance ministers reached a consensus on functioning of the scheme for reorganization of problem banks. It was the final step to create a banking union. Interbank reserve fund of 55 billion euros will be fulfilled in 10 years.
The main topic, on the markets during yesterday’s trading session, was the statement by the Fed, on the reduction of the assets purchasing program by $ 10 billion per month to $ 75 billion. At the same time was announced the forecast of stable growth of economy and reduction of unemployment in the U.S. The data on the balance of payments in the euro area, was also in the focus of traders. Trade surplus in October increased significantly compared to the previous rate of 14.9 billion euros and reached 21.8 billion euros. The number of jobless claims in the U.S. have risen to 379 thousands, that is the nine-month high, and was much worse than the predicted 336 thousands. Housing market of the U.S. also disappointed investors. The sales on the secondary market fell to 4.90 million, while expected figure was at around 5.04 million.
Euro has broken through a strong level of 1.3660 and the lower boundary of the rising channel. In case of further decline the next support level will be the 1.3620. The course of trading today will be affected by data on consumer confidence in Germany (07:00 GMT) and the final figure on the U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter (13:30 GMT).
In the UK was published a report on retail sales, which increased by 0.3%, and met analysts' expectations, but it turned out much better than the previous figure, when we have seen a drop in sales by 0.9%. British Pound continues its correction that started after the Fed's statement on further course of monetary policy. Now the price is consolidating above the 1.6320 support. Growth is limited by a local maximum at 1.6440. In case of further reduction the price can reach 1.6230.
PMI in Japan yesterday fell by 0.2%as was expected. At the same time the Bank of Japan said that opportunities for increasing the volume of purchases of assets far from being exhausted, and if necessary the central bank will start additional liquidity injections to achieve target levels of inflation. Now the price of the USD / JPY is consolidating at the upper limit of the corridor 103,90-104,40. We expect the price movement to continue in the uptrend.
The Australian Dollar, after the decline, continues correctional movement upwards. Now the price is below the 0.89 resistance. Drawdown of the quotes is due to loose monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia, aimed at reducing the value of the national currency and stimulating economy, which does not apply to the mining of natural resources. Growth is limited by the resistance level located at 0.89. Quotes on American standard Light sweet crude oil have reached the resistance at 98.80 dollars per barrel. Optimism is caused by, the Fed's statement on the improvement in the U.S. economy. This fact gives hope for the growth of oil consumption and encourages bulls to new purchases.
At the same time, the rise in prices is restrained by a significant increase in oil production and despite the fact that crude oil inventories are moving down for the third consecutive week, the long-term pressure on the price of "black gold" remains. Closest target of is the psychological level of $ 100.00 per barrel. Support is located at around 96.40 and 95.20 dollars per barrel. As was expected, after breaking through the strong support level, the price of gold began to decline sharply and is now consolidating below the psychological level of 1200. Purchases may be resumed at the level of 1180. Strengthening of dollar and rising in the stock markets reduces interest to the so-called "safe haven". We won’t see the rise in demand for gold until the stock market’s direction will change.