20.01.2014 – Today in the United States is a banking holiday
European stock markets ended the last day of the week near 6 years maximum levels. The reasons for optimism were growth in shares of mining companies and statistics from the U.S. The number of housings stars fell by 9.8% last month and reached 1.00 million vs. 0.99 million predicted. Building permits totaled 0.99 million against expected 1.01 million. Growth in industrial production in December was 0.3%, which was 0.1% worse than the forecast. The consumer confidence index also fell short of expectations and decreased to 80.4. Positive news came out from the labor market, where the number of open jobs outside the agricultural sector rose to 4.00 million, with growth forecast to 3.97 million.
Currently, futures on broad U.S. index S&P 500 is consolidating around 1840. The next support levels are at 1835 and 1825. Today in the U.S. is the day off, so we do not expect a strong activity of traders.
On this background, the euro has left the local rising channel and reached the support at 1.3550, and is now consolidating. The nearest support level is 1.35. Resistance is located at 1.3630.
Today, trading will pass in a quiet line due to lack of an important statistics in Europe. Data from China came out mixed. Thus, GDP in the 4th quarter increased by 0.1% more than expected or by 7.7%. Industrial output grew by 9.7% in December while the forecast was 9.8%. Retail sales increased by 13.6% as was previously expected.
The British pound continues to move within the triangle figure. We expect a strong movement after the price will exit from the triangle. When moving down – the price can reach the level of 1.6140, when exiting up – local maximum level of 1.66. Confirmation of a buy signal will be the fixation above 1.6460, for sale – fixation lower than 1.6320.
The quotes of USD/JPY corrected to 103.90 support line. In case of breaking through this level, the price can go for 103.35, but the more likely scenario is to resume the growth, in which the first goal will be 104.70.
Australian dollar continues to depreciate gradually. Correction upwards to 0.8840 can be caused by the weakening of the U.S. currency. We maintain a long-term negative outlook on pair quotations due to the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia aimed at the devaluation of the Australian currency in order to support the country’s economy, especially the non-mining sector.
The quotes of U.S. benchmark crude oil Light Sweet are traded slightly below 94.00 dollars per barrel. Prices are influenced by several factors. On the one hand OPEC announced a reduction of consumption of oil produced by cartel in the world to 29.9 million barrels per day and the oil production in the U.S. continues to grow. On the other hand, according to the latest data, inventories of oil and petroleum products in the U.S. declined, and the economy shows steady growth, which leads to the growth of consumption. In case of further decrease the price may reach 92.00. Growth is still limited by resistance at 95.60 dollars per barrel.
The price of gold continues to move inside the rising channel. Target level in this case is 1265. Support is at 1242 dollars per troy ounce. Demand for the metal in the world is still low, the exception is China, where demand for physical gold traditionally before the celebration of the New Year which will take place on January 31.