20.05.2014 - The Australian dollar fell after the release of the minutes of the RBA
The price of
euro almost unchanged yesterday due to the lack of important macro. In
addition, investors do not hurry to accumulate positions before ECB meeting on
June 5 on which may adopt new measures to deal with low inflation, which will
lead to a lower price of euro. Today the course of trading will be affected by
data on producer price index (06:00 GMT). We expect low volatility today and
The price of the British pound continued yesterday to consolidate below the strong level of 1.6840. Today, we expect an increase in volatility in connection with the release of a large block of statistics on consumer price index, producer price index and house price index. Low inflation may lead to a strengthening of the British pound. Taking into account strong economic performance in the UK, we reserve the medium and long term positive outlook with a target about 1.70.
The Japanese yen has strengthened sharply on the background of positive data on internal orders for machinery, which grew by 19.1% in March, compared with an expected growth of 6.1%. Despite this, the traders decided to fix short positions and the price returned to previous levels. Today the course of trading will be affected by data on the index of business activity in Japan (04:30 GMT). In addition, tonight will be released statistics on the trade balance of Japan. We expect the resumption of growth and maintain medium and long term positive outlook for the USD/JPY.
The price of the Australian dollar fell sharply after the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia in which was stated that the interest rate will remain at 2.5% in order to maintain economic growth, domestic expenditures will decrease due to budget cuts, investment in the mining industry and GDP will be reduced, expected the increase of investments in the housing market, and the weakening of the national currency should support economic growth. In addition, the index of leading economic indicators made 0.0%. On this background, as well as due to lower iron ore prices and the slowdown in the industry of China, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
The price of the New Zealand dollar fell against the weakening of the Australian currency. Yesterday the quotes of the New Zealand dollar rose on the background of data on the growth of the producer price index by 0.9%, which reduces the probability of monetary policy easing. We expect that the decline will end soon and the price of the pair will resume the growth within the corridor 0,86-0,87.