20.06.2014 - Investors will not rush to build up positions ahead of the weekend
U.S. stock indexes have slightly changed yesterday after renewed historical highs on Wednesday. The reason for optimism was the announcement that interest rates will remain at current levels for a long time. Moreover market was supported by data on the decrease of the number initial unemployment claims to 312 thousand, against the forecast of 316 thousand and an increase in the index of Philadelphia manufacturing PMI. At the same time, the index of leading U.S. economic indicators rose in May by 0.5%, which is 0.1% lower than forecasted. Today is an expiration date of many contracts and options, which can lead to increased volatility. Further growth may continue in the near future, but we maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the U.S. stock market.
European markets yesterday showed an upward dynamics on the background of positive from the United States. Support for the British market had data on the balance of production orders in the country, which rose to 11, against the forecast of 3. 44% of manufacturers said that they expect production growth in the coming quarter. At the same time, retail sales in May showed a decline of 0.5% which coincide with analysts' expectations. Today we should pay attention to the balance of payments (08:00 GMT), as well as the Eurozone consumer confidence index (14:00 GMT). The growth of markets will probably continue in the near future, but its potential is limited.
On the markets of the Asia-Pacific region is moderately negative mood. The Chinese market is down following the companies of real estate sector, but state-owned banks show a slight increase. The Australian market is corrected today after yesterday's strong growth. Among top gainers are gold mining companies that grow following gold. The Japanese market could not continue the strong growth and is consolidating around the previous close. We expect a decline in the markets of China and Australia, but keep a positive medium-term outlook for the Japanese indexes.