20.06.2014 - The last trading day of the week will be held calmly

The price of euro yesterday corrected downwards after strong growth caused by the weakening of the dollar. Thus, the reason for the decline of the U.S. currency was the Fed's statement that interest rates will remain at current levels for a long time. Yesterday's correction was caused by technical factors as well as positive data from the U.S., where the number of initial unemployment claims dropped to 312 thousand, against the forecast of 316 thousand, Philadelphia manufacturing PMI rose in June to 17.8, against 15.4 in May. Today we should pay attention to data on the balance of payments (08:00 GMT) and consumer confidence in the euro area (14:00 GMT). The price of euro will probably continue to rise today, but in the medium term, we expect a decline of European currency.

On Monday is possible a rise in volatility due to the release of data on business

The price of the British pound has overcome a strong level of 1.70 and continued growth on the back of strong data on the balance of industrial orders in the UK, which rose to 11, against the forecast of 3. Moreover, 44% of companies expect that production will grow in the next quarter. It is worth noting that the high cost of the British pound may negatively affect the volume of industrial orders. Today we expect the low activity of traders. At 08:30 GMT, will be released the data on public sector net borrowings, which can insignificantly affect the course of trading. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for the pound.

The price of Japanese yen fell slightly yesterday on the data concerning reduction of business activity index in April by 4.3% vs. expected decline of 3.7%. Negative data is associated with a slowdown after raising the sales tax in April by 3% to 8%. Further price movement depends on the dynamics of the U.S. dollar, which is down lately, but it is likely to become stronger in the medium term. We maintain our positive outlook for the USD/JPY.

Growth of Australian currency yesterday was caused by the weakening of the U.S. dollar and the increase in prices for copper and iron ore, which are exported from Australia. Further progress will depend on commodity prices and industrial production in China, which is the main trading partner of the country. We expect the resumption of the downward movement of the Australian dollar in the next few trading sessions and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

New Zealand Dollar continues to consolidate near yesterday's levels. Volatility decreased due to lack of drivers for price movement. Statistics from China may lead to active actions, but it is worth remembering that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand declared its readiness to fight against the expensive national currency, which limits the growth potential. We expect the price decline of the New Zealand dollar in the medium term.

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