21.01.2015 - Gold rose to $ 1300 per troy ounce
The price of gold continues to grow steadily against the background of increased demand for defensive assets in the world. Traders are waiting the results of the ECB meeting, which can launch a full-scale quantitative easing program, which will support the demand for commodity futures. At the same time, the risk to the stability of the financial system in the euro area remains elections in Greece, which can win the opposition party Syriza, which opposes the austerity measures in the country, which are necessary to restructure the country's debt. At the moment, the price reached the psychologically important level of $ 1300 per troy ounce, and we can see a price correction, but the medium-term outlook remains negative.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil has continued to decline amid deteriorating outlook for global growth from the IMF to 3.5%, which is 0.3% less than the previous forecast. At the same time, investors expect continued growth in US oil inventories. Gold reserves in investment funds are growing, but the demand in China has decreased due to the high price of gold. Traders are waiting for the ECB's decision on quantitative easing, which should support oil prices, but according to our estimates this effect is relatively weak against the background of excess of oil on the market. We expect a decline in oil prices to $ 40 per barrel in the medium term.