21.01.2015 - The Bank of Japan lowered its inflation target
The price of euro stabilized around the level of 1.16 and continues to consolidate around this mark. Demand for the euro yesterday was supported by positive data on the index of business sentiment in the euro area, which rose to 45.2 in January, against the expected 37.6. It is worth noting that investors are in no hurry to build up positions before the meeting of the European Central Bank on January 22 at which with a high probability will be announced the launch of the program of quantitative easing. In addition, on January 25 in Greece will hold parliamentary elections where the opposition power Syriza can win, that will lead to instability in the financial sector in the Eurozone. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the housing market in the US (13:30 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
The price of pound corrected down after yesterday's attempts to revive the growth. Increased volatility was caused by speculation regarding today's news on the labor market and the vote on the monetary policy of the Bank of England (09:30 GMT). Improvement in the labor market can support the demand for British currency, but the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators in recent months, and the decline of the euro, continue to put pressure on the stock exchange. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook, but today we can see an increase in prices.
The yen strengthened today after the statement of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy in the country. Stimulus program in Japan remained unchanged, but the outlook for inflation was reduced from 2.0% to 1.0% for the fiscal year that starts in April. At the same time, the growth forecast for the same period has been increased to 2.1%. Tomorrow will be held a press conference of the Bank of Japan, which will lead to an increase in the volatility of the yen. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen, but may soon see its strengthening against the demand for defensive assets.
The price of the Australian dollar rose today against the background of positive data on consumer confidence in Australia, which grew by 2.4% in January, against a decline of 5.7% in December. At the same time, investors expect the publication of data on industry in China, which will be released on Friday. Statistics on the housing market in the US today will affect the dynamics of the Australian dollar. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook, but we point that the decrease potential of the price declines.
The price of the New Zealand dollar reached the target level of 0.7620, but was unable to continue to grow and at the moment is corrected upwards. The reason for the reduction of quotations was the statistics on the consumer price index in the country in the 4th quarter of 2014, which fell to 0.2%, against an expected no change. At the same time, the price index for dairy products in the last auction Global Dairy Trade grew by 1.0%. Let us recall that dairy products are one of the main exports of the country. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook, but expect short-term price growth in the near future.