21.01.2016 - Bears continue to hold the initiative on the market
US stocks fell yesterday amid falling oil and general negative investor sentiment in the world, due to the deterioration in global growth prospects. In addition, data on the consumer price index in the United States, showed an increase in core inflation by just 0.1% in December against the forecast of 0.2%. At the same time, housing data disappointed investors. Thus, the number of permits issued for construction of new homes totaled 1.23 million compared to 1.28 million in November. The number of housing starts totaled 1.15 million, compared with 1.18 million the previous month. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect data on the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (13:30 GMT), and oil reserves in the country (16:00 GMT). The drop may continue in the medium term, but we are waiting for the correction in the near future.
Major European stock indexes continued to decline amid deteriorating investor sentiment amid falling global GDP forecasts in the coming years. Thus, the IMF predicts growth of 3.1% in 2015, 3.4% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017. Yesterday was published a controversial labor market statistics in the United Kingdom, where unemployment fell by 0.1% to 5.1% in November, but wage growth slowed to 2.0%, which is the minimum value in 2015. Today, the focus of investors will be on the press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi (13:30 GMT), which can support the markets in the region. We keep medium-term positive outlook for European markets despite a possible drop in the near future.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region continue to fall against the background of the minimum levels of oil since 2003. Demand for the yen as a protective asset continues to grow and its strengthening puts pressure on the Japanese market. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the preliminary data on manufacturing PMI in Japan. At the same time, concerns about the slowdown in China's economy in the near future will continue to put pressure on Chinese assets. After a strong decline is likely correct, but investors will not rush to buy in the coming months.