21.03.2016 - Dollar rises on the first day of the week

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro corrected at the end of the last week against the background of fixing of positions before the weekend. It should be noted that support for the European currency on Friday became weak data from the US on consumer confidence index by the University of Michigan, which fell to 90.0 in March from 91.7 in February. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the balance of payments data for the euro area (09:00 GMT), sales on the US secondary real estate market (14:00 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the Eurozone (15:00 GMT). Given the program of quantitative easing in the euro area and the expected increase in interest rates in the US, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound against the background shows a decline within correction after unreasonably strong growth of the previous days caused by the weakening of the US dollar. Continued growth in the near future is limited due to the expected referendum on the country's membership in the European Union. According to recent polls, more than half of the respondents are ready to vote for an exit from the EU, which will lead to a drop in prices of the pound. Today, the trading can affect the data on the balance of production orders in the UK (11:00 GMT). Tomorrow will be published important statistics on inflation in the country. Our negative outlook remains unchanged for the coming months.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the yen after rising last week continues to be near the strong support levels. At the moment, we see no reason for further strengthening of prices and we can see the resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future. Today in Japan is the day off, and tomorrow we should pay attention to the manufacturing PMI in the country. The strong influence this week will also have the final report on the US GDP that will be published on Friday. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar shows a decline after the strong growth that was caused by the decrease in concerns about the Chinese economy, rising oil prices and other commodities, as well as the weakening of the US dollar. In the near future we will probably see the price correction and mood of investors will continue to be heavily dependent on the situation on the commodity markets. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and is likely to continue falling in the near future.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar drops in connection with the publication of weak statistics on consumer confidence in New Zealand, which fell in Q1 to 109.6 against 110.7 in the previous period. In addition, investors were disappointed by the data on the number of tourists arrivals, which grew by 8.7%, against the previous level of growth at 13.6%. On Wednesday evening, will be published important data on the trade balance in New Zealand. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook due to the expected easing of monetary policy of the RBNZ.

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