21.04.2015 - ​The Australian dollar resumed its fall

Currency trading and euro. The price of euro continued to decline after strong growth last week. The main reasons for the negative dynamics of currency prices were the program of quantitative easing by the ECB, which will last until September 2016 and the risk of default of Greece. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the index of business sentiment in Germany and the Eurozone (09:00 GMT). Volatility will be increased due to the small number of macroeconomic data and the focus will remain on the news on Greece's debt crisis. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.

Currency trading and British pound. The price of the British pound corrected against the background of fixation of positions after strong upside last week. To continue to grow above the psychologically important level of 1.5000, the price needs new incentives. Tomorrow will be published the results of a voting on monetary policy in the Bank of England. We recall that analysts predict the start of raising interest rates later this year or early next year, which will lead to the strengthening of the British pound. We maintain our medium-term negative view on the British pound and expect the price reduction in the near future.

Currency trading and Japanese yen. The Japanese yen resumed its decline against the backdrop of fixation position and after reached a strong level of support. It is worth noting that the difference in the Fed's monetary policy where intend to raise interest rates and the Bank of Japan, where they continue asset purchase program by 80 trillion yen annually, is the basis for the further drop in prices of the yen. Tomorrow a strong influence on the course of trading will have data on the trade balance of Japan. We maintain our medium-term negative view on the yen.

Currency trading and Australian dollar. Australian dollar price declines after the publication of minutes of the previous RBA meeting. Thus, the main theses that affect investor sentiment became the possibility of further reduction in interest rates after the February rate cuts, as well as an opinion on the further fall in the price of the Australian dollar in the medium term. We recall that at the moment, interest rates are at 2.25%, and its reduction aimed at maintaining demand and stimulation of construction will lead to a drop in the price of the currency. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.

Currency trading and New Zealand dollar. The price of New Zealand dollar started to decline after could not continue to grow above the strong resistance level at 0.77. Negative for the quotes was the fall of the Australian dollar. It is worth noting that the economies of New Zealand and Australia are closely related. We expect a continuation of the downward movement of the New Zealand dollar in the near future.

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