21.04.2016 - In the US the volume of oil production continues to decline

The price of gold showed growth against the background of a stable demand for defensive assets amid uncertainty about the future prospects for growth on the stock markets. Improving macroeconomic data from China on the one hand reduces the interest in defensive assets, but on the other hand increases the opportunities for buying gold. We recall that China is the world's largest gold consumer. The main factor that will affect the dynamics of the precious metal in the near future will be the Fed's rhetoric on the possibility of raising interest rates this summer. The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be held next week. Our medium-term outlook for gold remains negative.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil continued to rise after publication of data on the US oil inventories, which last week rose by 2.1 million barrels, which is 0.1 million barrels less than the average forecast. At the same time, the volume of oil production in the US fell to 8.953 million barrels per day versus 8.977 million barrels per day in the prior period. The expected decline in oil production outside OPEC countries by 700 thousand barrels per day will support the bulls, but Russia announced its intention to increase production to 12 million barrels per day that together with an increase in exports from Iran will lead to the oversupply of oil on the market. Our forecast for the coming months remains negative.

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