21.04.2016 - Traders are awaiting for a press conference of Mario Draghi
Currency trading and the euro. Price of euro shows a decline against the US dollar after was published strong statistics on the housing market in the US, where the number of sales in the secondary market of the country rose to 5.33 million in March from 5.07 million in February. In addition, the reason for the decline was the profit taking, after several days of growth, as well as today's decision of the ECB on monetary policy (11:45 GMT) and a press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi (12:30 GMT). According to our estimates, the euro area central bank will not loosen monetary policy at this meeting, but may announce such intentions, which will be negatively displayed on the euro price. Among the American statistics we should pay attention to the manufacturing PMI of Philadelphia (12:30 GMT) and the index of house prices (13:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound after the publication of weak statistics on the labor market in the country, began to decline. Thus, the unemployment rate remained at around 5.1%, but the average salary for 3 months showed growth of only 1.8%, versus 2.1% previously. Today, will be published data on retail sales in the UK (08:30 GMT), which could also disappoint investors. Given the deterioration of macroeconomic statistics and the risks associated with the referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union, we maintain a negative outlook on the British pound in the coming months.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen decreased on a background of the US dollar growth. Positive dynamics on commodity and stock markets, reduce interest in defensive assets like the yen. In addition, weak economic data from Japan stimulates the sales of the Japanese yen. Representatives of the Bank of Japan continues to claim about the possible measures to deal with speculations, which has led to the strengthening of the yen, which is negative for exporters and puts pressure on inflation in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a fall in the yen in the medium term, but the fall on the stock markets can be an obstacle to this scenario.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continues to consolidate after a strong growth in the previous days. Increase commodities’ prices was positively displayed on the Australian currency, but investors fear the unstable situation on the commodity market. Today was published statistics on the index of business sentiment in Australia, which fell to 4 in the first quarter, which is 1 less than in the previous period. Strong support for the Australian currency remains positive statistics from China. We forecast a drop in the price of the Australian dollar in the medium term and in the near future in connection with the forecasted drop in oil prices.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a decline amid weak data on the service PMI which showed the weakest growth in the last 16 months. Rising prices for dairy products and the improvement of the trade balance figures have supported the growth of the New Zealand dollar, but its potential is limited and in the near future we can see the price correction. Our forecast for the next few months remains negative.