21.07.2016 - Interest in gold against is declining on a background of increased appetite for risk
The price of gold continued to decline after a long consolidation on the background of growth of investor interest in risky assets and the closure of long positions after a strong growth caused by the results of a referendum on the UK’s exit from the EU. The growth on the stock markets may continue in the near future, which is negative for gold. At the same time, strong statistics in the US strengthens the dollar and increases the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates before the end of the year, which is negative for gold. Current fall is likely to continue in the near future, but the probability of increasing interest in defensive assets remains high until the end of the year, which will lead to an increase in the price of gold.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil has once again failed to overcome the psychologically important support level at 45 dollars per troy ounce. Yesterday was recorded high volatility against the publication of important statistics on the US oil and petroleum products. Thus, the volume of oil inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels against the forecast of reduction by 1.3 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose by 911,000 barrels, against an expected decrease of 100 thousand barrels. In the US oil output rose to 8.494 million barrels, which, together with an increase in drilling activity will put pressure on the price of black gold in the future. Our medium-term outlook for oil remains negative, but the current correction may continue in the coming days.