21.07.2016 - The New Zealand dollar fell sharply
Currency trading and the euro. Price of euro has shown growth before today's decision of the ECB on monetary policy (11:45 GMT) and the press conference Mario Draghi (12:30 GMT) during which he is likely to announce plans of the European regulator regarding the use of additional stimulus measures in the future. Most experts do not expect an increase in volumes of assets purchasing or decrease in interest rates today. In addition, the dynamics of trading can affect the data on initial unemployment claims in the US and the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia (12:30 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and expect a rise in volatility today.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound corrected upwards following the euro after in the country was released the data on the labor market. Thus, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 2005 and was 4.9% in May against 5.0% in April. Today we should pay attention to the statistics on retail sales in the UK in June (08:30 GMT). The potential for price growth is limited and we expect the decline in the British currency in the medium term against the backdrop of the negative impact of the country's exit from the EU, as well as the expected strengthening of the US dollar.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. Price of Japanese yen continued to fall against the strengthening of expectations about additional stimulation of the local economy by the authorities. Thus, in press reported on the additional package of 20 trillion yen to stimulate the economy, which could be approved at the meeting of the Bank of Japan on July 28-29. Also, the central bank may decide to further reduce the key interest rate. Today has been published statistics on the index of business activity in Japan, which fell by 1.0% in May. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a fall in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar slightly corrected after yesterday continued to fall. The trading dynamics negatively affect the uncertain situation on the commodity markets and the possible reduction in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the background of low inflation and external risks to the economy. It should be noted that the index of business sentiment in Australia fell in the second quarter to 2 compared with 4 in the previous period. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we look forward to the resumption of the fall in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. Price of the New Zealand dollar today showed a sharp decline after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand expressed the need for a lower exchange rate of the local currency in order to achieve the inflation target and stimulate the manufacturing sector of the economy, and dairy products, which are key ones for New Zealand. In addition, the central bank announced a large uncertainty about the future growth prospects of the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but in the coming days is likely the rebound of prices.