21.07.2016 - Volatility will increase after the press conference of Mario Draghi
American stock indexes showed growth yesterday on strong quarterly report of Microsoft, as well as on the background of increase in oil prices following the publication of controversial statistics on inventories and the volume of oil production in the United States. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the news on an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia and the number of initial unemployment benefits in the US (12:30 GMT). Investors will also monitor the speech of the ECB chairman, in which he could reveal plans for the stimulation of the euro area economy. On the dynamics of trading will continue to effect the corporate reporting, as well as speculation about future Fed rhetoric in the next week, when will be published a statement by the American regulator. Current growth may continue in the near future, but the medium-term outlook remains negative.
Major stock markets in Europe today are reduced before the press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi (12: 30 GMT). The UK’s market have been negatively affected by the data on retail sales, which fell by 0.9% in June, against growth of 0.9% in May. According to our estimates, the central bank in the euro area will not expand the program of incentives based on the results of today's meeting and will take a break for a more detailed assessment of macroeconomic data to be published after the referendum at which has been supported the idea of exit from the EU the UK. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for European markets, and expect increased volatility in the near future.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a positive trend today. The reason for optimism became expectations for additional stimulus package of the Japanese economy on the part of local authorities, but after the closing of the trading session on the market appeared rumors about the likely preservation of monetary policy settings in Japan unchanged, which will be negatively displayed on the stock markets of the region. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect the data on Japan's manufacturing PMI for July, and the dynamics of the Australian market will continue to affect oil prices.