21.09.2016 - The market is waiting for the data on oil inventories in the United States and the Fed statement
The price of gold continued to consolidate due to the expectation of today's publication of the Fed's decision on interest rates and economic forecasts (18:00 GMT). The likelihood of rising interest rates today is low, but the rhetoric of the head of the Fed during speech today (18:30 GMT), is likely to be hawkish, which will lead to the fall of quotations of gold, which in the case of raising the rates would be less attractive compared with the assets that bring interest income. It should be noted that a possible decline in the US stock markets will lead to increased demand for defensive assets like gold. The Bank of Japan did not change the parameters of monetary policy and expectations of lower interest rates, which could lead to an increase in gold demand did not meet forecasts. According to our estimates, the volatility today will grow significantly, and despite possible short-term decline, we keep a medium-term positive outlook for gold.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil showed an increase after declining for the previous days. The reason for the sharp rebound of quotations has become expected reduction of oil inventories in the United States, data on which will be published today (14:30 GMT). In addition, volatility remains high due to speculation regarding informal negotiations between a number of major oil producers including OPEC countries, Russia and others. According to our estimates, intentions of Iran, Iraq, Libya. Nigeria and Venezuela to increase oil production volumes will lead to the impossibility of a consensus on freezing oil production. The dynamics of trading today and tomorrow will also strongly influence the movement of the dollar. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.