21.10.2015 - Weak data on the trade balance of Japan has led to the fall of the yen
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to consolidate near the levels of the previous day on the background of the lack of new drivers for growth. The representatives of the ECB continued to note the possibility of strengthening the program of quantitative easing in the euro area to stimulate inflation. It is worth noting that on Thursday will be published on the ECB's decision on monetary policy, which is likely to indicate the readiness of the regulator for additional incentives, but the parameters of the monetary policy will remain unchanged. Today, in the euro area and the United States will not be published vital statistics and the course of trading may be affected by the statements of the Fedâs official Jerome Powell (17:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and a press conference Mario Draghi on Thursday, will lead to increased volatility.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to consolidate in anticipation of new incentives for the movement. Today, investor sentiment willbe affected by the news on the net borrowing of the public sector of the UK (08:30 GMT). In addition, is projected the increase in volatility after the speech of the Bank of Englandâs chairman (17:00 GMT). Several representatives of the Bank of England are in favor of the normalization of monetary policy, which will be positively displayed on the price of the pound. Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative, but its reduction potential is limited.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen declined against the background of weak statistics on the trade balance of Japan, which in September showed a deficit of 0.36 trillion yen, against the forecast of 0.07 trillion yen. It is worth noting that the decline in exports is due to weak demand for Japanese goods in China and other Asian countries. Thus, export growth slowed to 0.6% vs. anticipated 3.4%. Imports fell for the ninth consecutive month, indicating that the weakness of the economy and stimulating speculations on the strengthening of incentives after the meeting of the Bank of Japan on October 30. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar started to decline after some consolidation, and may continue to fall in the near future. Stabilizing of commodity prices supported the Australian dollar in recent weeks, but for continued growth are required new incentives. Tomorrow, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the data on the index of business sentiment in Australia. We expect a continuation of the negative dynamics of prices in the medium term and in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar began to decline against the backdrop of a lack of power for continued growth of the bulls and the desire of investors to take profits after strong growth in previous weeks. Statistics in China, which is the main trading partner of the country indicates a weakening of the country's economy, which is negative for the New Zealand currency. Investors continue to monitor the prices of dairy products. Which are the main export goods. The potential for further growth is limited and we expect a drop in prices to the local minimums as in the near future.