21.01.2014- Oil can not choose the
U.S. stock markets yesterday did not work because of celebration of the day of Martin Luther King. The focus was on important macro block from China. Thus, according to the fourth quarter GDP growth of the second largest economy in the world was 7.7%, while analysts had expected an increase of 7.6%. At the same time industrial output grew by 9.7%, which was 0.1% worse than the forecast. Data on retail sales in December has met the expectations of growth by 13.6%. The volume of investments in capital assets in December increased by 19.6%, against the forecast of 19.9%.
Yesterday was released the data on Producer Price Index, which in December rose 0.1% vs. 0.2% growth expectations. Price continues to consolidate around the level of 1.3550. The course of trading today can be influenced by the index of economic sentiment in Euro zone and Germany, which will be released at 10:00 GMT.
World economic community expects the summit of finance ministers of G-7 and the World Economic Forum in Davos which will start tomorrow.
In Britain yesterday was published the house price index, which rose by 1% in January. Today, we should pay attention to the balance of production orders in the UK (11:00 GMT). The British economy shows steady growth and reducing unemployment. Therefore we expect that the national currency UK will continue to hold a strong position.
After correction, the quotes of USD/JPY resumed growth. Data on the volume of production in Japan, released yesterday, showed that the indicator decreased by 0.1% in November, although growth was expected by 0.1%. The reason for the sustainable currency depreciation is the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aimed at currency devaluation in order to support exporters and achieve growth of inflation to 2.0%. In this regard, we remain bullish forecast for the pair.
Australian Dollar continues to consolidate after a strong decline amid negative data on the labor market in Australia. Important statistics in Australia will be released only on Wednesday night. Thus, will be published the consumer confidence index and consumer price index.
U.S. benchmark crude oil price remains around the mark 94 dollars per barrel. Market situation is influenced by several factors. Thus, the level of oil production in the U.S. last week updated the record and reached 8.16 million barrels per day. On the other hand the last report showed a decrease in crude oil and petroleum products inventories in the U.S. by 7.6 million barrels.
Libya is also increasing oil production, but the risks of new supply disruptions remain. On this week, comes into action, the agreement on the suspension of Iran's nuclear program and easing economic sanctions by Western countries on the Islamic republic.
Gold continues to rise gradually. The bulls are supported by data on the demand for the yellow metal. Amount of assets in the largest gold exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust rose to 797.05 tones. Investors are turning their attention to the so-called "safe haven" in the fear that the growth of the stock markets is near to its end. Until a significant correction on stock markets, we do not expect a strong growth in gold. Increased demand is also observed in China, which is a traditional situation before the celebration of the New Year, which will be held on January 31.