21.02.2014 - Volatility on the markets is falling
U.S. stock indexes ended the trading session with growth on the background of positive macro statistics. Thus, the manufacturing PMI in the U.S in February increased to 56.7, with the forecast of 53.7. The number of applications for unemployment benefits dropped to 336 thousand, which is 3 thousand better than the previous figure, but 1 thousand worse than the forecast. Falling of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany to 54.7, against the forecast 56.4 resulted in the fall of quotations to the level 1.37 where the price is consolidating and waiting for new signals.
Today the course of trading may be affected by the publication of the European Commission’s economic forecast (10:00 GMT), as well as news from the summit of the G-20.
On Monday, the course of trading will be affected by data on the business climate in Germany and consumer price index in the Eurozone. In the U.S., will be published < flash services PMI.
The price of the British pound still continues to consolidate above the strong level 1.6640. Today the course of trading will be affected by data on retail sales in the UK (09:30 GMT), but due to the lack of important macro in the U.S. and the euro area, we should not expect a significant growth of volatility.
The price of USD/JPY continues to consolidate within the triangle. Minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of Japan, in fact, did not bring anything new, and reaffirmed the intention of further stimulation of the economy. Today we do not anticipate a strong price movement.
The Australian dollar regained some lost ground and now is consolidating around a strong level of 0.90. We recall that decline of AUD/USD was observed after the release of negative statistics on industrial production in China, which is the main trading partner of Australia.
The quotes of Light Sweet crude oil continue to consolidate above the level of 103.00 dollars per barrel. The reason for the latest increase was the decline in U.S. inventories of distillates, which is caused by abnormally cold weather in North America. We expect that the price will fall after warming amid rising of oil inventories and record volumes of oil production in the United States.
After some correction the gold price resumed the growth. We recall that the uncertainty in the future growth of the stock markets continues to fuel investor interest in gold. Another factor that can positively affect the gold price may be the abolition of restrictions on the import of gold in India, which is the second largest consumer of the metal in the world, after China. We maintain a long-term positive outlook.