21.05.2014 - Traders are waiting for the publication of the minutes of the Fed
The price of euro
fell slightly yesterday, but continues to consolidate around a strong
level of 1.3700. Reason for the decline was the decrease in the
producer price index in Germany by 0.1% in April against the forecast
0.0%. In addition, the euro weakened after the speech of a member of
the Governing Council of the ECB Liikanen, who noted possibility of
steps to deal with low inflation on June 5 at the
ECB meeting. Today the course of trading will be affected by the data
on the balance of payments in
the euro area (08:00 GMT), the index of consumer confidence in
the Eurozone (04:00 GMT), and the speech of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen
(15:30 GMT) and the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of
the U.S. Federal Open Market Commitee (18:00 GMT). We keep medium and
long term neg
The price of the British pound continued to rise amid inflation data in the country. Thus, the consumer price index in April was 1.8%, which is 0.1% more than forecast. Producer price index showed a zero growth. At the same time house price index increased by 8.0% vs. the forecast of 10.7%. Today we should pay attention to data on retail sales (8:30 GMT), as well as statements of American officials. We expect growth of pound and keep medium and long term positive outlook.
The Japanese yen strengthened yesterday on the background of data on the index of business activity in Japan, which in March increased by 1.5%, which is 0.1% below the forecast, but better than reduction in February by 1.1%. Today, in the focus of traders was the data on the trade balance of the country, deficit of which in April totaled 0.84 trillion. against the forecast of 0.60 trillion. In addition, investors are closely monitored the statement of the Bank of Japan. Considering loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the reduction of quantitative easing in the U.S., we save the medium and long term positive outlook for the USD/JPY.
The price of the Australian dollar sharply declined yesterday after the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, where was noted that the rate will remain at 2.50%, due to low inflation and the weak economy, the country's GDP and investment in the mining sector will be reduced, and the construction sector will grow. In addition, the RBA said that the decline of the national currency should support economic growth. Tonight was published the index of consumer confidence in Australia, which fell in May by 6.8%. We expect further price reduction and keep a medium-term negative outlook for AUD/USD.
The price of the New Zealand dollar weakened due to the fall of the Australian currency. The price of pair has left the corridor 0,86-0,87 and continues to decline. The quotes of the New Zealand dollar are under the pressure of the weak data on the growth of industry in China, as well as decline in prices for major export commodities, among which is milk products. This week is not expected the release of important macro in the country, but after a strong decline, we expect an upward price correction and expect continued downward movement in the medium term.