22.01.2015 - Markets are waiting for the speech of Mario Draghi

US stock indexes yesterday showed a slight increase on expectations of announcement of the launch of quantitative easing in the Eurozone. In addition the course of trading was influenced by corporate reporting in the US, which turned out to be contradictory. Thus, investors were disappointed by the data of IBM, but pleased with the report of UnitedHealth Group. Today, in addition to news from Europe, the US, investors will monitor the statistics on the labor market in the US (13:30 GMT). Today, we are forecasting an increase in volatility, but keep medium-term negative outlook.

December 16, 2014 USSPX Graph

European stocks yesterday continued to grow and updated highs since 2008. The reason for optimism was the news about the possibility of starting the program of quantitative easing in the euro area in March this year with the volume of monthly purchases of about 50 billion euros. At the same time the British stocks were supported by the news on the reduction of unemployment in the country at 0.2% in November, up to 5.8%. In addition, the probability of an earlier raising of interest rates by the Bank of England declined. Today, the central event of the day will be a press conference of the head of the ECB (13:30 GMT) on which will be announced the parameters of monetary policy of the Eurozone in the near future. We may revise our medium-term outlook to positive in case of a full-scale asset purchasing program.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a slight increase on the background of investor optimism regarding the program of asset purchases in the euro area, the volume of which could reach 50 billion euros per month and start in March. This situation can improve the medium-term prospects for growth in the markets of the region. Increase in volatility is expected tomorrow after the publication of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Japan and China. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but may be revised in the near future.

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