22.03.2016 - The British Pound may continue the current fall

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro shows fall amid a stronger US dollar due to increased probability of the Fed raising interest rates in June. The reason for this trend was the statement by the Federal Reserve officials. Pressure on the euro is also provided by the news on consumer confidence in the euro area, which in March fell by 1, to -10. Today will be published data on manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT) and the US (13:45 GMT). In addition, we should pay attention to the statistics on the index of business sentiment of Eurozone (10:00 GMT). Investors are waiting for the final reports on growth of the US economy in the 4th quarter of the last year, which will be published on Friday. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to decline against the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as fixing long positions after unreasonably strong growth of price earlier. Today will be published statistics on inflation in the UK and saving it at the lower levels will help to maintain the current settings of monetary policy in the country. We expect the price decline in the near future and during the next months, the growth will be limited by concerns about the results of the referendum in the country on the issue of EU membership.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. Japanese yen price declines against the US dollar after some consolidation. Yesterday in Japan had the day off and today investors started trading week with weak manufacturing PMI data, which fell below the important level of 50.0 to 49.1 in March against 50.1 in February. This fact indicates that the reduction in the sector. Given the recent rise in the yen and the weak performance of the Japanese economy, we expect additional steps by the Bank of Japan, which, together with the expected strengthening of the dollar, will lead to a drop in prices of the yen. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continues to consolidate in anticipation of news from the commodity markets, the growth of which has recently supported the price increase of Australia's currency. This week the activity will be reduced due to the holidays, which is associated with the celebration of Easter. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar and its growth potential in the near future is limited.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar moved lower against the US dollar, on the background of strengthening US currency and the closure of long positions. Despite the decline in investors' concerns about the situation in China and the rise in prices for commodities, the New Zealand dollar is still under the pressure from weakness in the agricultural sector and low inflation, which may lead to a further reduction of the RBNZ interest rate. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the New Zealand dollar.

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