22.04.2015 - Volatility on the markets decreased
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro strengthened yesterday against the background of statements by representatives of the European Commission concerning the fact that Greece will remain in the euro zone. The deadline for Greece is the end of June. At the same time, according to analysts, the current funds in Greece will be enough for a few weeks and in connection with this country must find a compromise with creditors. Today will be published statistics on consumer confidence in the Eurozone (14:00 GMT). The dynamics of prices continue to be under the pressure of rate hikes of the Fed and the program of quantitative easing in the Eurozone. At the same time, the macro data in the region has improved. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound strengthened against the weakening of the US dollar, as well as due to increased euro. Analysts expect the publication of the results of voting on monetary policy at a meeting of the Bank of England (08:30 GMT). In addition, investors are interested in comments from the Bank of England on to inflation, the general state of the economy and hints on the timing of interest rate increases. According to our estimates, the price of the pound will continue to consolidate around current levels in the near future and we keep the medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen has stabilized, despite the weakening of the US dollar. The fall of the yen also slowed due to unexpected improvement in the trade balance of Japan, which in March turned out balanced between imports and exports. Analysts had forecasted a deficit of 0.41 trillion yen. Tomorrow the course of trading will be affected by the news on the manufacturing PMI of countries that traditionally lead to increased volatility. Loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will continue to have a negative impact on the stock of the Japanese currency in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar strengthened after the publication of statistics on the consumer price index in the country, which in the first quarter rose 0.2% that has met analysts' expectations. The annual rate of inflation was 1.3%, which also coincided with the forecasts. It is worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia expect a further fall of the Australian dollar and may lower interest rates in the near future, which will lead to a drop in the national currency. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to falling prices for the main export commodities of the country.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate near the important resistance level at 0.77 and at the moment is gradually increasing following the Australian dollar. For continued growth due to low export prices, quotations need new drivers. We recommend to wait for a signal to open new positions, but note the growing likelihood of a downward price correction in the near future.