22.04.2016 - Gold demand in India and China has decreased

The price of gold has shown strong growth of volatility yesterday on the background of the expected ECB decision on interest rates. As a result, the central bank of the Eurozone did not change the parameters of monetary policy and the further reduction of interest rates is possible only in case of deterioration in the financial system and reduction of inflation. Deflation in the euro area is possible in the coming months, but in the second half of the year, rising fuel prices will lead to an increase in the consumer price index. In Switzerland, stated about the fall of the gold deliveries to India and Hong Kong, but the purchases increase was recorded in the UK. According to our forecasts, the Fed's tightening of monetary policy this year will be more rapid than predicted at the moment. Our medium-term outlook for gold remains negative.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil resumed growth after a recent decline. Despite the saving of excess of oil supply on the market and statements of Iran, Russia and Libya's intentions to continue building up the volume of oil supplies, the market was supported by the statement of the International Energy Agency. Thus, according to its executive director Fatih Birol, the supply of oil from countries that are not included in OPEC will decrease by 700 thousand barrels per day this year and at the same time, consumption growth in China and India will remain high. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a substantial correction in oil prices after the recent strong growth.

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