22.07.2016 - The ECB did not change monetary policy parameters
Currency trading and the euro. Price of euro showed high levels of volatility, but could not continue to fall and continued to consolidate around previous levels. It is worth mentioning that yesterday, the ECB announced the preservation of monetary policy parameters unchanged and the credit rate remained at 0% and deposit rate at -0.4%. It is worth noting that Mario Draghi said about the possible softening policy in September, but the central bank's decision will depend on the macroeconomic data and the negotiations on the exit of Great Britain from the EU. Today, it is worth paying attention to the data on the manufacturing and service PMI in the Eurozone (08:00 GMT) and the manufacturing PMI in the US by Markit (13:45 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but until the Fed's statement next week quotes will probably consolidate around current levels.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed no strong changes yesterday, despite the significant event in the euro area. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the data on manufacturing and service PMI in the UK (08:30 GMT). Next week, will be released the news on the growth of UK’s GDP for the 2nd quarter, but investors will not rush to accumulate positions before the Fed statement on monetary policy. The growth of the British pound in the near future is limited due to the negative expectations associated with the exit of the EU and we expect a continuation of negative dynamics in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened yesterday after the Bank of Japan head Haruhiko Kuroda has denied the possibility of "helicopter money" for the market, but at the same time pointed out that the regulator has a considerable number of the measures which it can use if necessary. As a result, we do not expect strong price movements to the Bank of Japan and the Fed statements next week. Today, the support for the yen has become stronger data on manufacturing PMI, which in July rose to 49.0, against 48.1 previously. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative, but in the coming days, it is unlikely to fall.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued to consolidate, despite negative trends on the commodity markets. After a strong decline, investors took a pause. Investor activity will be constrained by the expectation of the Fed's statement on monetary policy. Next week will be published important statistics on consumer prices and the low level will encourage speculations about monetary easing by the RBA, which will be negatively displayed on the quotations of the Australian dollar. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. Price of the New Zealand dollar started to correct after a strong decline in the previous days on a background of the desire of investors to take profits, as well as due to the lack of new driver for the continuation of this downward movement. Next week, will be released trade balance data in the country that could lead to increased volatility. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.