22.08.2016 - Oil began to decline within the correction

The price of gold fell on a stronger US dollar after a number of Fed officials in their statements used hawkish rhetoric, which increased the likelihood of the Fed tightening monetary policy this year. Increase of interest rates traditionally has a negative impact on gold, which is becoming less attractive in comparison with assets that generate interest income. Strong volatility is expected on Friday after the release of statistics on the growth of US GDP in the second quarter and the speech of the Fed's chairwoman Janet Yellen on economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Our medium-term outlook remains positive on the background of forecasted falling stock markets.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil started the correction on the of the background of fixation positions after a strong growth in August caused speculation about the possible achievement of a consensus on the terms of oil production among OPEC countries, Russia and others, but according to our estimates the probability of such an agreement is low. On the other hand, the decision to freeze production volumes will have no significant impact on the market, as many countries show the maximum production levels. Drilling activity in the US continued to grow, indicating saving the imbalance of supply and demand for oil. The probability of reduction of price by 5-10% in the near future is high, and we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

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