22.09.2014 - This week is expected the reduction of volatility
The price of euro continues to decline, despite the positive data on euro area balance of payments, which rose by 0.1 billion. to 18.7 billion. Dollar continues to rise after the Fed's statement on the methods of monetary policy tightening, though the Fed said that the rate hike will depend on the country's economic performance. Today the course of trading will be affected by the data on the index of consumer confidence in the euro area, as well as at the secondary housing market in the United States (14:00 GMT). In addition, the dynamics of trading will depend on the speeches of Mario Draghi (13:00 GMT) and the president of FRB of New York, William Dudley (14:05 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro with the objectives of 1.28 and 1.25, and recommend holding short positions.
The British pound after a significant increase in volatility is gradually rising today. The reason for optimism is the fact that Scotland according to the result of referendum on independence will remain a part of the United Kingdom. This week we expect a decline in level of volatility of price and stabilization of the pound. The course of trading on Tuesday may be affected by the data on mortgage lending in the country, and on Thursday - retail sales data. We expect a gradual increase in the price of the British pound in the near future, but its growth is limited by the strengthening of the dollar.
The Japanese yen has stabilized after a sharp decline against the statements of the Fed, as well as words of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda on the continuation of monetary policy easing in the country to achieve the inflation target of 2.0%. Tomorrow in Japan the day off and investors are in no hurry to accumulate positions and are fixing previous profits. This week, the main event will be the release of statistics on inflation in the country on Friday. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the yen.
Quotations of the Australian dollar continue to fall amid speculation on the weakness of the Chinese economy. Prices for iron ore, gold and other export commodities Australia remain at low levels, which lead to a deterioration of the imbalances in the country's trade balance. The main event of the week for the Australian currency is the speech of the Reserve Bank of Australia chairman Glenn Stevens on Thursday. We expect a further weakening of the Australian dollar in the medium term with a target of about 0.88.
The New Zealand dollar strengthened after the parliamentary elections in the country where has won the National Party New Zealand and Prime Minister John Key has become the first head of the government, which will heading it by three consecutive terms. The main platform of the party is a tough economic policy. Currently New Zealand macroeconomic indicators deteriorate due to the fall in prices of agricultural products, which is the main export item of New Zealand. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the New Zealand dollar.