22.09.2015 - The possibility of rising interest rates of the Fed this year, supports the demand for dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed decline yesterday against the background of rhetoric of Fed officials, most of whom are in favor of raising interest rates this year due to the strong performance of the labor market of the country. According to our forecasts, in case of rising inflation in the United States, we will see a tightening of monetary policy. Today, we should pay attention to the index of house prices in the US in July (13:00 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the Eurozone (14:00 GMT). After a recent decline, the price is likely to bounce up, but we expect the decline of the euro in the medium term.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to fall within the local downward trend after strong growth against the backdrop of improving the situation on the labor market. Today will be published statistics on public sector net borrowing of the United Kingdom and balance of industrial orders (08:30 GMT). At the moment, there is a possibility of growth after the recent resumption of a downward correction. At the same time, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen is consolidated within a narrow corridor due to holidays in Japan. Traders will return to the market only on Thursday and until this moment we do not expect strong price movements. The course of trading will be affected by the news from the US. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar fell yesterday due to the strengthening US dollar. The fall has stopped today in connection with the release of positive statistics on the index of house prices in Australia, which in the second quarter grew by 4.7% against the forecast of 2.5%. At the same time, the index of leading economic indicators in China grew by 1.0% in August, which is 0.1% better than the previous figure. Tomorrow we may see a strong price movement after the release of a report on China's manufacturing PMI calculated by Caixin. The expected strengthening of the US dollar, low prices of commodities and weak data on GDP growth will lead to a further drop in prices of the Australian currency the medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to fall against the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as due to technical factors. According to our estimates, the recent rise was temporary and loose monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, along with weak statistics on the trade balance of the country, will continue to put pressure on quotations of the New Zealand dollar in the medium term and will lead to its decline in the near future.