22.09.2016 - Oil inventories has fallen in the US
The price of gold showed growth after the US Federal Reserve issued a statement on monetary policy. Thus, interest rates have remained at the level of 0.25-0.50%, and the regulator needs more time to assess the situation in the economy, where inflation continues to rise, but did not reach the target level of 2.0%, and the unemployment rate is below 5.0 %. According to our estimates, the interest rates will not be raised until December. At the same time, a possible drop on the stock markets in the coming months, as well as the risk of victory of Donald Trump on the US presidential election will support the demand for defensive assets such as gold. Our medium-term outlook for gold remains positive with growth potential to 1400-1430 dollars per troy ounce.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil has continued the rise after was published the data on the US oil inventories, which fell by 6.2 million barrels last week, against the forecast of growth by 3.2 million barrels. It is worth noting that the decline is temporary, and given the rise in US production, we expect saving the oversupply in the medium term. Investors are also waiting for the meeting of a number of representatives of major oil producers at a conference in Algeria, where they can make a decision on freezing or reducing oil production to raise prices. According to our estimates, this scenario is unlikely, and we expect a drop in prices in the near future with targets at 40 and 36 dollars per barrel.