22.09.2016 - Optimism has returned to the market after the Fed’s statement
American stock indexes showed gains after the Fed announced about saving the monetary policy parameters unchanged and positively assessed the situation on the country's labor market and rising inflation. It is worth noting that among the members of the Committee on the Federal Open Market was no unanimity regarding the issue of the timing of interest rate increases. We do not expect a tightening of monetary policy in November, but a similar move in December, has a high probability. Today, the minimum impact on the course of trading will have statistics on the existing home sales (14:00 GMT). According to our estimates, the current growth may continue in the near future, but its potential is limited. We still expect a decline on the market in the medium term.
European stocks show strong growth on the background of positive movement in the US. Previously, investors feared the Fed to tighten monetary policy, which is negative for the stock market, but after yesterday's Fed statement, buying has resumed. It is worth noting that the leaders of growth were the shares of commodity companies, which in addition to the weakening US dollar also supported oil prices. Today, the dynamics of indices in Europe will affect the news on consumer confidence in the Eurozone (14:00 GMT) and ECB President Mario Draghi (13:00 GMT). Current optimism may continue in the near future, but our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region generally showed a positive dynamics following the markets of America. In Japan today, is the official day off. The Australian market was supported by commodities prices, as well as the speech of the new head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, in which he noted the positive dynamics in the labor market and announced forecast on the improvement of the situation on commodities market in the future. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect the preliminary data on manufacturing PMI in Japan. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the region's markets, but growth in the near future will be supported by an improvement on commodities market sentiment and expected weakening of the yen.