22.10.2015 - Rhetoric Mario Draghi will be in the focus of investors
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to consolidate on the background of waiting for the results of today's ECB meeting and press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi (12:30 GMT), during which he will probably mark the weakness of growth of macroeconomic indicators in the Eurozone and the fall in inflation. Verbal intervention in the form of plans to strengthen incentives of the ECB will affect the price of the euro. The dynamics of trading will also be affected by the news on the number initial unemployment claims in the US (12:30 GMT). Volatility today will grow. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound fell slightly against the background of technical factors and the lack of new incentives for growth. Today, the price dynamics will be affected by the data on retail sales in the UK (08:30 GMT). At the same time we should pay attention to the dynamics of the euro, which may affect investors’ sentiment due to the expectation of increased volatility. Lack of incentives for growth and weak macro leads to a further drop in the price of the British currency in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened today against the background of technical factors and has offset some of the previous losses. Earlier negative for the yen became the weak data on the trade balance, where the deficit rose more than analysts' expectations, which has been associated with weak demand in China and other Asian countries. Tomorrow investor’s sentiment will be influenced by the news on manufacturing PMI of the country. Waiting for new stimulus measures by the Bank of Japan and anticipated Fed’s raising interest rates in December, will put pressure on quotations of the Japanese currency in the medium term. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a slight increase in volatility after the publication of statistics on the index of business sentiment in Australia, which in the third quarter fell to 0, against the previous level 4. The recent decline in the Australian currency was due to the fall in commodity prices following the publication of negative reports on the growth of China's GDP which slowed to its lowest level since 2009. We expect the price decline of the Australian currency in the medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar rose after the speech of the Minister of Finance of New Zealand Bill English in which he emphasized the improvement in the consumer sector in China, which is a major consumer of New Zealand’s products. In addition, the part of China's economy, which is important for New Zealand, continues to grow. Our medium-term outlook for the New Zealand dollar remains negative, but we do not exclude the continuation of growth in the near future.