22.11.2013- Oil wins back fall
Trading session on the U.S. stock market closed on positive territory. After falling on the previous day the indices started to grow again. S&P500 consolidation continues at the level of 1800. The course of trading yesterday was influenced by data on manufacturing index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. According to the report, in November, manufacturing index in the region has decreased significantly, reaching a level of 6.5, compared to 19.8 points in October, analysts expected a decrease to 15.1 points. Number of new unemployment claims dropped to 323 thousands against predicted 333 thousands. Improving labor market brings closer the time for cutting the quantitative easing program. Trading in Europe ended with a slight decrease. Markets were pressed by manufacturing activity index in China which has fallen down more than was expected, and minutes of the last FOMC meeting indicated the possibility of reducing quantitative easing program. Euro recouped some of its losses and now is in the corridor 1,34-1,35. Further price movement of the pair will depend on the outcome of the meeting of finance ministers of Euro zone. Besides today we should pay attention to the data on German GDP in the 3rd quarter, which will be published at 7:00 GMT. Asian stock markets began the trading day on the positive, supported by growth of U.S. markets. But they end the trading session at the previous close levels. Banking Committee in the U.S. Senate voted for the support of Jeanette Yellen. Mrs. Yellen supports the continuation of the quantitative easing program, against which the markets have grown in recent years. Yen continues to grow. Price of pair has not yet reached 101.50 but surely is moving to this level. In case of correction, we can see the price at around 100.40. Japan's monetary policy aimed at decreasing the yen has a positive impact on the economy, so in long term we do not expect the currency strengthen. IMF calls the Reserve Bank of Australia to continue an easy monetary policy. According to IMF the Australian dollar is overvalued by 10%, which affects the rate of economic development. At this time the price of AUD / USD continues to decline. Next target may be at a strong support level at 0.91. Resistance is at 0.93. The British pound reached to the upper border of the lateral channel formed from early October. We see possible descending movement with the first target 1.6080. Growth is limited by 1.6240 mark. Gold fell to four-month low. Rise in yields on bonds, low inflation, and a possible reduction of the quantitative easing program pull the price to levels 1220 – 1200, on which we can see the resumption of purchases. Meanwhile, yesterday it was reported that the reserves of SPDR Gold Trust - the largest gold exchange-traded fund in the world, fell day before at 2.70 tons, reaching with four and a half year low level - 860.31 tons. Prices on Light crude oil reached $ 95. Correction seems logical after reduction from 110 to 92 dollars per barrel. Globally growth of commercial oil stocks in the United States and the possibility of opening the world market for Iran will help to lower quotes in the future. Growth is now limited to the resistance level of around 97 dollars. Futures on the U.S. and European indices show moderately - positive mood on the markets. The course of trading today besides the data on GDP in Germany and the Euro zone finance ministers' meeting will be affected by the number of new jobs in the U.S. non-farm payrolls (15:00 GMT). It should be noted that the labor market is a key indicator for the economy and main goal of the central bank's policy is to reduce unemployment.