After a three-day break in the U.S., the stock markets resumed trading. Major U.S. indixes had a mixed dynamics. Bulls were supported by a message of raising the forecasts for growth of key economies in the world. Thus, the forecast for GDP growth in the U.S. has been raised from 2.6% to 2.8% for China from 7.2% to 7.5%, and Germany from 1.4% to 1.6%. The growth forecast of global GDP was increased from 3.6% to 3.7%.
Bloomberg survey showed that investors evaluate the prospects of the global economy as the most optimistic in the past five years amid recovery in the developed countries, primarily in the United States.
The quotes of aluminum giant Alcoa increased by 6.3% after analysts upgraded rating from "neutral" to "outperform." It is worth recalling that the growth in demand for aluminum indicates the improvement in high-tech industries.
Among the important macro, which will be released today in the UK we should pay special attention to the data on the labor market (09:30 GMT). Today will also take place voting on the monetary policy the Bank of England. We do not expect changes in the monetary policy of the central bank.
The index of business activity in Japan in November, made up 0.3% compared with the previous period. The forecasted growth was 0.4%. Tomorrow will be held a press conference of the head of the Bank of Japan. In this regard, we do not expect a strong movement of USD/JPY during the day.
Consumer confidence in Australia in January reduced by 1.7%. Consumer prices increased by 0.8% while the forecast was 0.5%. We maintain a long-term bearish outlook for the price of the Australian dollar.
The International Energy Agency has raised the forecast for oil consumption in the world to 1.3 million barrels per day. Prognosis improvement is associated with an optimism of the global economic growth. On the other hand the price of oil continues to be under the pressure of the record production levels in the U.S. and growth of exports in Libya. Moreover, the U.S. and the European Union declared the weakening of international sanctions against Iran, which is due to reduction of the Islamic republic's nuclear program.
The price of gold corrected on the background of growth on the stock markets in the world. Traders are expecting the Fed meeting, which again can reduce the volume of quantitative easing program, which in turn should have a negative impact on prices of gold on the market. On the other hand, in case of correction on stock markets, investors' interest can again switch to defensive assets.