23.02.2015 - The first day of the week is likely to be with low volatility
The price of euro continues to consolidate around the levels 1,1280-1,1500. The main issue for the further movement of the euro remains the Greek debt crisis. On Friday became known the new agreement between Greece and creditors regarding extension of credit agreement for 4 months, according to which the Greek government will not make unilateral changes in policies and structural reforms. According to our estimates further speculations about the future of Greece in the Eurozone will resume during the spring. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the index of business confidence in Germany (09:00 GMT) and home sales on the secondary market in the US (15:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative due to the launch of quantitative easing in the Eurozone.
The price of the British pound continues to rise gradually after the strong statistics on the labor market in the country. The dynamics of the British currency is affected by the news on Greece and the movement of the euro as a whole. Investors did not rush to accumulate positions before the publication of statistics on GDP growth in the 4th quarter of last year, which will take place on Thursday. Today we should pay attention to the statistics on the balance of retail sales in the UK. We expect continued growth in the near future.
The price of the Japanese yen showed moderate growth after the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of Japan. Most members of the Monetary Policy Committee are expected reaching the inflation target in 2015 fiscal year, which begins in April. The growth of exports in the country continues to grow due to improved demand on the world markets, as well as due to the weakening of the yen. At the same time, it is worth noting reducing the probability of launching new stimulus from the Bank of Japan. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen given the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and its tightening by the Fed.
The price of the Australian dollar continues to move sideways. Activity of traders will be reduced in connection with the celebration of the New Year in China, which will last until 24 February. In the near future volatility will remain low, and the course of trading will depend on the dynamics of the US dollar and oil prices. In the near future it is likely that prices will reduce. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the New Zealand dollar is gradually reduced in the uptrend that began earlier this month and was caused by rising commodities. It is worth noting that the key export products are agricultural products. Volatility in the coming days will be reduced and the dynamics will depend on the price fluctuations of the US dollar and commodity prices. Increase in volatility is expected on Wednesday after the publication of data on the trade balance of the country on Wednesday. We forecast the price growth in the near future.