23.02.2016 - The price of oil still strongly affects the stock markets

US stock indexes showed gains yesterday on the background of growth on commodity markets after the International Energy Agency published a forecast according to which oil production in the US dropped by 600 thousand barrels per day in 2016, and another 200 thousand barrels per day in 2017. On investor sentiment negatively affected the preliminary data on US manufacturing PMI, which fell to its lowest level since 2009, to 51.0 in February from 52.4 in January. Today in a market focus will be publication of the data on new home sales and consumer confidence in the US from the Conference Board (15:00 GMT). Our outlook remains negative in the coming months.

European stocks are near yesterday's closing levels. Yesterday markets rose despite investors' concerns about the possible exit of Britain from the European Union structure. A referendum on this issue will be held on June 23 and until that time we will see strong movements on the market amid speculation on the subject. Today has been published statistics on GDP growth in Germany, which, according to preliminary estimates, totaled 0.3%, which coincided with forecasts of analysts. Today will also take place the speech of the Bank of England in the Parliament, which can affect the mood of investors. In the near future the growth of the European market will be supported by the expectation of ECB meeting at which may decide on additional measures to stimulate the economy and inflation in the euro area. Our medium-term outlook remains positive.

Major stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region fell today following the resumption of the negative dynamics on the commodity markets, where yesterday strongly increased oil prices after the publication of forecast on the US shale oil production reduction by 600 thousand barrels per day this year. Asian investors are waiting for new incentives for opening positions. Strengthening of the yen has a negative impact on the Japanese indexes and the resumption of devaluation will be the main driver for growth on the Japanese market in the coming months. We expect the gradual decline in volatility on the markets of the region, and after stabilizing the situation on the markets growth can resume.

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