23.03.2015 - Traders are watching the news on the Greek question
The price of euro stopped growing after strong increase in the last trading session of the week, which was caused by the provision of 2 billion euros for Greece to maintain liquidity. At the same time, investors will continue to sell the dollar after softer Fed statement, which reduce the chance of the Fed raising interest rates in June. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on consumer confidence in the Eurozone (15:00 GMT). Particular attention should be paid to the speech of Mario Draghi (14:00 GMT) and the results of the visit of the Greek Prime Minister to Germany. Speech by Deputy Head of the Fed Stanley Fischer will also have a strong influence on the course of trading (16:20 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the euro in relation to the program of quantitative easing in the Eurozone.
The price of the pound stopped growing due to the expectation of additional signals on the Greek issue, as well as the statements of the ECB and the Fed. Among the British statistics we should pay attention to the data on the balance of production orders of the UK in March (11:00 GMT). Tomorrow will be released a large block of data on inflation in the country. The dynamics of the British currency will depend on the decisions of politicians in the Eurozone. We predict a decrease in quotations in connection with the launch of the quantitative easing program which puts pressure on the euro.
The Japanese yen continued to strengthen in connection with a reduction in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in June. A strong dollar negatively displayed on US exporters, but supported the Japanese companies. The current strengthening of the yen will end soon and loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will continue to put pressure on the quotes of the yen. Tomorrow is forecasted the increase in volatility due to the release of data on manufacturing PMI of Japan. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen.
The price of the Australian dollar reduced the growth pace against the US dollar at the beginning of the week. To continue the upward movement, the price needs new incentives. Today, a rise in volatility is expected after the speech of the deputy head of the Federal Reserve Stanley Fischer (16:20 GMT). Investors today are not building up positions in the expectation of tomorrow's publication of statistics on manufacturing PMI in China, which traditionally has a strong influence on the course of trading. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continued strong growth late last week in connection with the publication of strong statistics on consumer confidence in New Zealand in the 1st quarter, which rose to 117.4 against 114.8 in the previous period. Investors expect the statistics on the trade balance of the country, which traditionally has a strong influence on the course of trading. In recent years, we see an improvement of macroeconomic indicators in New Zealand that will support the growth of quotations in the medium term.