23.05.2016 - The risks of substantial correction are growing
The US stock market is in an undefined state due to a number of factors, including the growth of the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates, a possible correction in oil prices, as well as reducing profits of US companies, which have a negative impact on the expectations of analysts. On the other side, the labor market and the housing market show strong results consistently, and inflation increases the confidence in further increase of the country's GDP. Today, the dynamics of trading will effect the data on US manufacturing PMI from Markit (13:45 GMT), but the central event of the week will be the publication of preliminary data on US GDP growth in the 1st quarter. According to our estimates, there is a high probability of decline in US indexes in the coming weeks.
The main European stock indices show a slight change in the expectation of tomorrow's publication of statistics on GDP growth in Germany and the ECB report on financial stability. Today, were published data on manufacturing and service PMI in the euro area in May that has made 51.5 and 53.1, against 51.7 and 53.1 in April. Today is also worth paying attention to the data on the index of consumer confidence in the Eurozone. According to our estimates, the markets may continue to fall in the coming weeks, but the medium-term outlook remains positive.
Markets of Asia-Pacific region ended the day with little change. The Japanese stock market has negatively affected the strengthening of the yen against the US dollar amid skepticism of participants of G-7 Summit concerning the initiative of currency interventions on the Japanese market in order to reduce the price of the yen. Also today, data was published manufacturing PMI of Japan, which fell to 47.6 against 48.2, indicating acceleration of a reduction in the sector. At the same time exports fell by 10.1% over the year, which is 0.1% worse than forecast. The Australian market is under the pressure of negative dynamics of commodity markets. Our medium-term outlook for the region's markets is positive, but the probability of falling is high.