23.06.2015 - The euro began to decline
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro after a long consolidation began to decline against the backdrop of a lack of consensus at the talks in Brussels between the Eurogroup and Greece. Despite this, investors are waiting for reaching an agreement before the end of the week. Consumer confidence in the euro area remained at -6. Today, the course of trading will be affected by data on manufacturing and service PMI of Eurozone in June (08:00 GMT). In the United States will be published important macro statistics on the volume of orders for durable goods (12:30 GMT) and new home sales (14:00 GMT). In case of strong statistics in the US, the euro is likely to continue falling. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound is declining against the background of lack of new drivers for growth and profit-taking after strong upward movement in the previous days. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the data on the balance of production orders in the United Kingdom (10:00 GMT). The price of the British currency is also under the pressure of the falling euro and rising dollar. According to our forecasts, in the medium term, quotations of the pound will decline.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen is declining against the backdrop of growth of quotations of the US dollar, as well as the weak statistics on the manufacturing PMI, which in June fell to 49.9, against analysts' forecast of 50.6 and the previous value of 50.9. Tomorrow will be published the minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of Japan, but we do not expect their strong influence on the course of trading. Anticipation of the US dollar strengthening and loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, give reason to predict the decline of the yen in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar fell against the strengthening of the US dollar and weak statistics from Australia and China. Thus, the index of leading economic indicators fell 0.3% in April, house prices in the 1st quarter rose by 1.6%, vs. forecasted 2.2%, but China's manufacturing PMI calculated by HSBC rose to 49.6, that is 0.2 better than analysts' expectations. Our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar remains unchanged.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to fall following the Australian currency. The strengthening of the US dollar continues to negatively affect the dynamics of prices of the New Zealand dollar. It is worth noting that the decline continued after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates and hinted at the likelihood of further easing of monetary policy in the country. Low prices for dairy products also help to reduce prices. We expect a decrease in prices in the medium term.