23.09.2014 - Weak demand for oil continues to put pressure on the quotes
The price of gold continues to decline within the downtrend. Corrective upward movement was caused by the weakening of the dollar, as well as the increasing demand for defensive assets like gold in connection with the use of American aircraft during air strikes on positions of militants of the Islamic State in Syria. We forecast that gold will continue to fall to the level of 1200, and may fall even to 1180. Around these levels, we expect considerable intensification of buyers in Asia. On the other hand the demand for the metal from investment funds remains low, but the situation may change in case of a significant correction on the American stock markets. We maintain our positive medium-term outlook for gold.
The price of oil continues to decline on the background of weak demand amid a large supply of oil on the market. Investors also have been disappointed by statements of the officials of China, who said they did not intend to change its monetary policy in the country due to the deterioration of certain macroeconomic indicators. Despite this, data on the manufacturing PMI in China supported the bulls, but could not lead to a change in the trend. Thus, the figure rose to 50.5., which is 0.5 better than the forecast. In the medium term the dynamics of oil prices may be affected by the decision of OPEC to reduce oil production after the meeting on November 27th. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook, but note the low potential for further price decline.