23.09.2016 - The dollar restored the part of the previously lost positions
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro resumed its fall against the dollar, after the recent strengthening, which was caused by the Fed's decision to maintain the monetary policy settings. At the same time, the Fed noted the possibility of raising interest rates till the end of the year, but the economic data which will be released in the coming months will influence the decision. Pressure on the euro yesterday had the positive data on the US labor market, which strengthened the dollar. Thus, the number of initial unemployment claims in the US dropped to 252 thousand, against the forecast of 261 thousand. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the preliminary data on manufacturing and service PMI in the Eurozone (08:00 GMT). On Monday, will be published important data on new home sales in the United States. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative with the objectives at 1.0700 and 1.0550.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound was unable to continue the positive trend against the US dollar and renewed the fall. The dynamics of the British currency continues to be adversely affected by expectations the country's exit from the EU. Today will not be published important statistics in the UK, and the main event next week will be the publication of the final report on GDP growth in the second quarter. We see no reason for the strengthening of the British currency in the near future and medium term and maintain a negative outlook with the downside potential to 1.2800 and 1.2600.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen declines against the dollar, after the recent increase, caused by the Fed's decision not to raise interest rates in September. In addition, official of the Ministry of Finance of Japan Asakava, said about the possibility of taking measures in case of further strengthening of the Japanese yen against the US dollar, which negatively affects the attractiveness of Japanese products on the international markets. Positive preliminary data on manufacturing PMI Japan in September, rose to 50.3, which is 1.0 better than expected, failed to change the negative trend of the Japanese yen. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and quotes will likely continue to decline in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed correction after showed strong growth against a background of rising prices of commodities and the weakening of the US dollar. On the one hand, traders fixed positions before the weekend, and on the other - the Australian currency is adversely affected by the US dollar strengthening. According to our estimates, the growth potential in the case of a resumption of positive dynamics, is low and our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar fell slightly against the US dollar, but continues to consolidate in anticipation of the new signals. Earlier, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided not to cut interest rates, but noted the possibility of such a move in the future, in case of continued low inflation levels. In addition, the price is under the pressure of uncertainty on the market of dairy products, which is the key export commodity group. On Monday, volatility is likely to grow after the publication of data on the trade balance of the country. Our medium-term outlook is negative and the current decline is likely to continue today.