23.11.2015 - The fall on commodity markets continued following the growth of the dollar
The price of gold continues to decline amid growing probability of the Fed raising interest rates to 74% from 72% previously. The reason for the optimism of investors about raising rates is positive statistics on the labor market and inflation in the US, as well as expectations of growth in the consumer price index in 2016 to the target level of 2.0% due to the leveling effect of low oil prices. It is worth noting that gold consumption in China has increased to a maximum for 8 months, but in India the demand was weak due to the low income of farmers this year. The strengthening of the US dollar and an expected rise in interest rates of the Fed will put pressure on the gold price in the next month.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil continues to fall against the background of saving the fundamental factors that put pressure on quotes. Thus, the excess of supply on the market is variously estimated at 0.7-2.5 million barrels per day and could grow by an additional 1 million barrels in 3 months after the lifting of sanctions against Iran, which is expected in December and January. The slowdown in industrial production in China is a strong factor that puts pressure on the oil quotations. News about reducing the number of active oil rigs in the United States by 10 units to 564, could not change the negative sentiment. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.