23.11.2015 - The growth of the dollar on the market has resumed
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to decline against the background of statements by ECB President Mario Draghi on Friday in which he underlined the intention of the central bank of euro area to use all available methods to stimulate inflation in the euro area, which may include lower interest rates and extension of quantitative easing program in the euro area from the current volumes of asset purchases by 60 billion euros. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the data on manufacturing and service PMI in Eurozone (09:00 GMT), the US manufacturing PMI (14:45 GMT) and sales on the secondary real estate market in the US (15:00 GMT). Investor activity will be constrained by the expectation of release of data on GDP growth in Germany and the United States tomorrow. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro with the closest target at 1.05.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed a sharp drop at the end of the trading week on the background of investors' fixation positions ahead of the weekend, as well as due to increased confidence in raising interest rates in the United States after the speeches by the Fed officials James Bullard and William Dudley. In the coming days, the dynamics of the British currency will depend on the movements of the dollar and the euro. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the data on the balance of retail sales in the UK. We expect the fall of price in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued its decline against the background of the likelihood of higher interest rates of the Fed in December. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said about the strong impact of oil prices on inflation in the country and its stabilization will allow inflation rate to reach the target level of 2.0% in the second half of 2016. It should be noted that today in Japan is a day off, and reduced activity in the market. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect Minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of Japan, and today will be published irregular Fed statement, which may lead to increased volatility. We expect the decline of the yen in the medium term against the background of the difference in the monetary policy of the US and Japan.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a strong decline amid a number of factors. Thus, investors fixed positions after unreasonably strong growth last week and quotes the Australian currency weighed on the strengthening of the US dollar and falling commodity prices. It should be noted that copper fell to its lowest level in six years. Tomorrow there will be the speech of the Reserve Bank of Australia Glen Stevens, which may cause increased volatility. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar after the recent correction, resumed growth and has continued to decline after the Australian currency, as well as in connection with the strengthening of the US dollar, falling prices for raw materials and statics on the number of tourists in the country, which fell by 8.9% in October. The weak inflation in New Zealand, and the expectation of growth of the US currency will continue to pull down quotes the New Zealand dollar in the medium term. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.