23.12.2013- U.S. GDP data supported the stock markets, but weakened the dollar
The last trading day of the week ended with a strong growth in major stock markets around the world. Christmas rally is gaining its speed. A positive mood on the markets in Europe was supported by data on consumer confidence in Germany. According to the report, the figure rose to 7.6 against analysts' expectations of 7.4. Consumer confidence in the euro area fell to -14 which is 1 point better than was forecasted. The message that the GDP according to the final results in the third quarter grew by 4.1% significantly strengthened the positions of bulls. Analysts had expected growth of 3.6%. One of the GDP growth consequences was a record growth in inventories that in the future may have a negative impact on the economy as a whole.
On this background the euro regained part of previously lost positions and abutted against the lower border of the rising channel. At the same time, the price fixed above the 1.3660 mark. Today in the euro area important macro release is not expected, so the price is likely to remain in the corridor 1,3620-1,3710.
British Pound continues to correct within the local rising channel. Macro statistics on UK, published on Friday, had no significant impact on the course of trading. GDP growth index in the third quarter have met the expectations of analysts and appeared at 0.8%. Balance of payments deficit at the same time increased to 20.7 billion pounds, the growth was expected to only 13.8 billion pounds. Now the price is consolidating above strong support level of 1.6320. Release of important data is not expected today. Growth is limited by the resistance level at 1.6440.
USD/JPY retreated from a five-year maximum. The decline was due to the weakening of the U.S. dollar. The reason was the fact that the improvement in GDP growth gives all grounds to expect more rapid reduction of quantitative easing in the U.S. The quotes of the pair now have moved away from the upper boundary of the rising channel and are consolidating above the previous local maximum at 103.90. If this level will be broken, the price will reach $ 103.35. Today in Japan is a day off, so we do not expect a significant activity in trading of this currency pair.
Weakening of the dollar has led to the Australian dollar strengthening. AUD/USD has managed to gain a foothold above the important level of 0.89. In case of further growth, the price can reach the upper limit of the downward channel and 0.90 mark, but at first it will have to overcome the level of 0.8960, which is near the level where the price consolidated for a long time during the last week.
Prices for U.S. benchmark Light sweet crude oil once again have reached the level 98.80, but failed to gain a foothold above him. Growth of quotations on the one hand was supported by the weakening of the U.S. dollar, on the other hand, GDP growth of the world's largest economy should lead to an increase in oil consumption. On the other hand, in the long term, growth of oil production in the U.S. continues to push on oil quotations.
Gold regained a part of its positions lost after the U.S. Federal Reserve decision on the reduction of liquidity injections into the market. Now the price is consolidating above the psychological level of 1200. Possible continuation of the correction is possible to the level of 1220. At the same time the reserves of the world's largest gold secured exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust has fallen to 808.72 tonnes - its lowest level in nearly five years. The outflow from the world’s eighth largest “gold” ETF totaled 720 tons, the reason for that was that investors preferred to invest in more profitable - risky assets.