23.12.2014 - Markets are waiting for a large block of statistics from the US
The price of euro yesterday showed a minor correction, but now returned to minimum levels of this year. Consumer confidence in the euro area in December was -11, which is 1 better than the forecast of analysts. It should be noted that sales of existing homes in the US unexpectedly fell to 4.93 million against the forecast 5.21 million, but this fact failed to affect the mood of investors. Investor activity before the holidays is reduced, but today will be published a large block of statistics in the United States. So will be released the data on durable goods orders, US GDP for the 3rd quarter (13:30 GMT), the index of consumer confidence (14:55 GMT), new home sales and personal spending and income of consumers (15:00 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro and recommend holding short positions.
The British pound continued its gradual decline yesterday. Investors still expect a drop in prices of pair due to a statement on the Fed's intention to raise interest rates next year. Today, we expect increased volatility due to the publication of data on business investment, balance of payments and the UK GDP in the 3rd quarter of this year (09:30 GMT), in addition statistics from the US will also lead to a strong price movement. Price drop is limited by annual lows around 1.5550, in case of achievement which there is a probability of correction upwards. We recommend to wait for a signal to open positions on the British pound and the forecast growth in the medium term.
The price of the Japanese yen continues to gradually become cheaper due to lower demand for defensive assets. In addition, investors continue to negatively assess further prospects for growth of the yen against the US dollar on the background of the difference in the monetary policy of central banks. Today in Japan is the day off and trading volumes declined significantly. Volatility may rise after the data in the United States. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen and traders expect low activity until the end of the Christmas holidays.
The price of the Australian dollar will continue to update lows after corrective gains in the market of raw materials stopped. The activity of investors on the Australian dollar declined in connection with the holiday tomorrow. Important macroeconomic block from the US may slightly increase the price fluctuations, but we should not expect a significant price movement. Long-term factors that affect the price of the Australian dollar - the state of the Chinese economy and the price of iron ore and other commodities continue to put pressure on the quotes of the currency and we expect a price drop to 0.80. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
The price of the New Zealand dollar failed to show growth despite a decline in the trade deficit to 213 million in November, compared with an expected 550 million and the previous figure 911 million. Positive for investors were also news on the growth of the index of leading economic indicators in China by 0.9% in November, compared with 0.8% in the previous period. The resumption of the downward movement in commodity prices offset the positive from statistics. We predict a decrease in quotations of the New Zealand dollar in the medium term.