23.05.2014 - ​The U.S. dollar strengthened on the background of data on the labor market and the housing market

The price of euro continued its gradual decline. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Eurozone fell to 52.5, against the forecast of 53.2, and in the service sector rose to 53.5, against 53.0 expected. Moreover to the decline of the euro contributed a stronger dollar. Number of initial unemployment claims rose to 326 thousand, which is 14 thousand more than the forecast, but the number of continuing claims dropped by 13 thousand to 2,653 thousand, which is the lowest level since December 2007. Sale on the secondary market also rose to 4.65 million in April from 4.59 million in March. Today, in the center of attention will be the data on GDP growth in Germany in Q1. On Monday, in the U.S. is a banking holiday and is not expected the release of important macro. Traders will not accumulate positions ahead of the weekend during which will be held in Ukraine the elections where is expected deterioration of the situation. We keep medium and long term negative outlook for the euro.

The British pound fell slightly against the strengthening U.S. dollar. Statistics on GDP growth in the UK coincided with analysts' forecasts. So, the economy grew by 0.8% in the first quarter and by 3.1% per annum. Today we expect the low activity on the market with respect to future long weekend in the U.S. and the lack of important macro. We keep medium and long term positive outlook for the British pound.

The price of Japanese yen continued to weaken against the U.S. dollar after the statements of the Bank of Japan regarding the lack of reasons for the rise of the yen and positive U.S. data. Country's economic performance improved in recent months, but monetary policy of the regulator will still remain soft for a long period and the monetary base will grow by 60-70 trillion. yen per year. We keep medium and long term positive outlook for the USD/JPY.

Volatility of the Australian dollar has grown at first on positive of data from China, which supported the Australian currency, and then on a stronger U.S. dollar. It is worth noting that the price continues to trade above the strong level of 0.9220 and we will need new signals for determination of further movement. The quotes of the pair are also pressured by decline in iron ore prices and weak economic indicators. We keep medium and long term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.

The price of the New Zealand dollar stopped falling despite the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Quotes of the pair were supported by data from China where the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 49.7, against the forecast of 48.4. Drop in the index of leading economic indicators in China in April to 0.9%, against 1.1% in March did not disappoint investors. On Sunday night, will be released the data on the trade balance of New Zealand that traditionally increases the volatility on the market. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook, but do not exclude the upward correction in the near future.

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